Stargazing 2030
The end of one decade and start of another presents the opportunity for experts across all industries to reflect on the past and predict future stars, constellations and new galaxies. The sports business is no different. Changes in governance, technology, political events, content creation, distribution and consumption will dictate how and how quickly the sports business will evolve over the next 10 years. Here are nine topics that caught my eye in recent months that are worth tracking throughout the next decade.
Women’s sports. More support for women’s sports from a sponsorship, media and fan perspective. Amongst others, the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup reached a tipping point with a cumulative global audience of more than 1 billion. In the UK, the England vs USA quarter-final attracted 11.7 million viewers of which 61% were men. Purely from a sporting perspective it will be interesting to see if the USA women’s basketball team can claim a 7th consecutive gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics…..
Brand partnerships. Wherever you look, brands are reinventing themselves to deliver improved consumer experiences and greater value. At CES 2020 in Las Vegas, Marc Pritchard, P&G’s chief brand office told delegates: “the next decade will bring exponential changes in innovation and the greatest leap forward in creativity the world has ever seen.” In the last five years P&G has saved $1 billion by reinventing partnerships with marketing partners by taking some roles such as media planning and creative services in-house. According to Pritchard, apart from saving money this also helps to transform the culture with more creativity, agility and entrepreneurship.
Esports. The continued growth of eSports will surprise no-one. The question is how brands will engage with the gamers. Unlike traditional sport with governing bodies it is the gaming community and publishers who define and dictate how the world of eSports evolves. Brands such as DHL and Mercedes Benz have already integrated eSports into their marketing strategies. BT just signed a multi-year sponsorship agreement with Excel Sports a UK based team, now renamed as BT Excel competing in the League of Legends European Championship. And, to attract new sponsorship Excel recently hired a former director of global sports marketing from Adidas, Robin McCammon, as Excel chief commercial officer. In the next 10 years gaming and eSports will merge into mainstream sponsorship and sit comfortably next to UEFA Champions League, Formula 1 or the Olympics.
GenZ. The holy grail for some sports, brands and media networks, currently defined as the 16 to 24 age group. In a recent report from Nielsen Sports called ‘Game Changer’ there is a pretty stark message in the introduction: “if traditional sport’s don’t evolve, declining attendance and viewership will accelerate because Generation Z is coming of age”. According to Mike Wragg, Global Head of Research, the future for many depends on how we adapt to the high expectations for entertainment experiences, distribution of content and consumption patterns. Loyalty towards star personalities such as Cristiano Ronaldo who now has three times as many social media followers on Instagram and Twitter as his team, Juventus and Serie A, combined. Similar thoughts are expressed by Peter Hutton, Facebook director of global sports partnerships who refers to ‘putting video where new and existing fans can easily find it’. Organisations can widen their fan bases using these ‘free-to-air funnels’ to drive revenue in sponsorship, subscriptions, tickets and merchandise.
Betting and sports entertainment. In the US the integration of betting into the sports and entertainment ecosystem is due to take place with as many as 23 states introducing sports betting in 2020. Although some of the most populous states such as California, Texas and Florida are not expected to be included. According to media experts, people who bet on sports watch up to twice as much live sports as those who don’t. Increased investments in technology will make their way into the market improving the quality of the consumer offer with in-play betting expected to benefit significantly. Intense marketing activity from big multi-state operators is expected to gain early market share, with live video being key.
Soccer. In the US, the MLS enters its 25th season with the addition of two new teams: Miami and Nashville. Others including Sacramento, St. Louis, Charlotte and Austin are all waiting to follow. Former US soccer player and Fox Sports Analyst, Alexi Lalas questions if further expansion is the smartest move and will lead to a greater return for soccer club ownership. No doubt many will be following the progress of David Beckham’s new club, Inter Miami CF who revealed plans for a $966 million stadium that will unfortunately not be ready this season due to the discovery of hazardous debris in soil samples.
China. Another nation with big sporting ambitions that has not only set out goals for the next year or two but potentially the next 10 to 15 years. According to Dr. Lingling Liu, managing director of JTA China, the first priority is competing successfully at the Tokyo Olympics, especially against the host nation in table tennis, badminton and gymnastics. The second is to stage the Beijing Winter Games in 2022 with similar PR effects to rival the Beijing Olympics of 2008. Thirdly, is the unspoken goal of bidding for the FIFA World Cup in 2030 or 2034. Improving the performance of Chinese football teams in the meantime would help their cause. But there are other challenges such as including a more inspiring sports curriculum in schools and a drop in birth rate in 2019 that could stifle the ambitions of China being a world leading sports power by 2050.
Investment. Not a day passes without an investor acquiring rights or starting a new venture in sport but the one that caught my eye was the 10% share taken by Silver Lake in City Football Group. Not the biggest investment but maybe one of the most significant as this is an endorsement of the CFG business model. Manchester United has been very successful at monetizing their brand all over the world but the CFG is a different value proposition. According to Professor Simon Chadwick at the University of Salford, this is a symbolic deal that will challenge others to think differently about sport.
Innovation. A buzz word that is over used in the sports business as rights holders, marketers and media seek new ways of attracting participants, subscribers and fans back to events or teams they have seen many times before. Competing with LaLiga and the English Premier League is not an easy challenge but Germany’s Bundesliga has become the world’s first football league to partner with Amazon Web Services, who will now be known as the Bundesliga’s official technology partner. Starting 17th January the Bundesliga will be able to take advantage of the ‘powered by AWS’ statistics which will be incorporated into the multi-platform broadcast coverage. Machine learning services such as Amazon Personalize which creates real-time and individualized recommendations will be used to offer fans personalized game footage, marketing promotions and search results based on their favourite teams, players or fixtures. In the words of the DFL chief executive, Christian Seifert, the partnership fits in with the stated aim of becoming the most ‘innovative football league in the world’. German football fans will experience more Amazon services in the future as Amazon has also acquired exclusive UEFA Champions League media rights for the 2021/22 to 2023/24 cycle.
Looking back at the sports industry I entered 30 years ago there were few accurate predictions that survived the test of time. Whether it was the success of the UEFA Champions League, the rise and fall and rise again of Tiger Woods or new entrants such as Red Bull and the impact of the ‘Internet of Things’, it is not about predicting the future. It is all about having a crystal clear vision and defining a strategy that serves the needs and wants of your customers and communities. Change is inevitable, consumers are more vocal and the next decade will be just as exciting and unpredictable as the last decade, no matter what people might see gazing at the stars and dreaming of new galaxies.
Have a great sporting decade!